RFA process bidding war and some not so #FakeNews
Jul 21, 2017 11:36:57 GMT 2
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Chicago Bulls, Philadelphia 76ers, and 3 more like this
Post by Portland TrailBlazers on Jul 21, 2017 11:36:57 GMT 2
The free market is the real friend of the minority who bitch and whine about the rich getting richer as our RFA process secures a seat for all members to the table of equal opportunities (contrary to the government).
If you go to the poorest black neighborhoods you will see at least some people with nice cars, some nice clothing, some nice houses but NO nice schools. Similarly, even a shithouse like Utah has some really nice players like Gobert and McCollum.
Cars, clothing, houses and Nerlens Noel are generated through the free market but some anomalities (like the Indiana spoiled kid) will always be there to establish capital relocation through the free market without any trace of common sense.
Economic theory can't answer the question whether or not an offer sheet is fair but what it can tell you is the effect of paying $25 million for a player like Otto Porter: the cash will run out and that team will miss out on assembling a balanced squad while he could have 3 players delivering the same stats with the same salaries combined.
With that in mind, expect a relatively quiet RFA season as the top players (Porter, Noel) will get paid, some mid tier guys (Bogdanovich) will get overpaid and potential gems like Simmons will get resigned for pennies on the dollar.
Tim Hardaway Jr.
RFA rights: Knicks
Likely destination: Knicks, Pacers, Nuggets, Suns, Magic, Celtics
Contract estimate: $6 to $10 million per year
Likely to get overpaid? YES
Why it makes sense: The Knicks are going to have to pick 1 out of Hardaway Jr and Pope so there will be a chance for someone to overpay and grab a starting SG who averaged 17.5 points, 3.6 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 2.1 three pointers in 30 starts and at almost 30 minutes/game. The question though is what kind of SG does make a difference in a 9 cat league, Hardaway Jr. or Caldwell-Pope?
Kelly Olynyk
RFA rights: Celtics
Likely destination: Celtics, Warriors, Heat, Nuggets, Pelicans, Suns, Jazz, Magic
Contract estimate: $5 to $8 million per year
Likely to get overpaid? NO
Why it makes sense: The Celtics look locked and loaded with Favors and Vucevic, but there will be many teams eager to pay for the second coming of Ντινος Αγγελιδης who is looking to an increased production in this new era of NBA basketball. The UFA class in hate city this year is also not very deep so Olynyk's value seems high but Boston has some $47 in cash and no intention to spend more than the market value for him.
Nikola Mirotic aka Mr. April
RFA rights: Bucks
Likely destination: Bucks, Nuggets, Pacers, Lakers, Pelicans, Knicks, Kings, Jazz
Contract estimate: $4 to 10 million per year
Likely to get overpaid? YES
Why it makes sense: Mirotic is a rollercoaster type of fantasy player that you either love or hate. Taking on a larger role down the stretch for the messy Bulls after being inexplicably the odd man out of the rotation for most of the season he posted a mixed bag with career-lows per-36 minutes last season. A change of scenery is not on the horizon as the Bulls have traditionally held to their players no matter the cost and Fred Hoiberg (probably the worst coach in the NBA) is not going anywhere as well. This is actually one of the most getable RFAs in this class as Milwaukee might have to select between him and Tony Snell.
Michael Carter-Williams
RFA rights: Bulls
Likely destination: Warriors, Pelicans, Cavaliers, Bucks, Lakers Contract estimate: $2 to 4 million per year
Likely to get overpaid? NO
Why it makes sense:
Do the Bulls need another PG? Certainly no and Carter-Williams struggled to establish himself in Chicago last season although he was even given the chance to start a few games for the crappy Bulls as the former rookie of the year will have to settle for a backup role now. He's still only 25 after all.
Cristiano Felicio
RFA rights: Bulls
Likely destination: Bulls, Hornets, Cavaliers, Heat, Lakers, Wizards
Contract estimate: $3 to 5 million per year
Likely to get overpaid? NO
Why it makes sense: Felicio will remain in Chicago and although he has never averaged more than 16 minutes per game the Bulls might be ready to unleash him as they are transitioning into a rebuilding period. That said RoLo still currently stands atop Felicio on the depth chart at Center. The Bulls fiscal situation offers a great opportunity for managers to steal this fatty.
Nerlens Noel
RFA rights: Rockets
Likely destination: Rockets, Magic, Knicks, Pacers, Nuggets Contract estimate: $15 to $20+ million per year
Likely to get overpaid? ABSOFREAKINUTLY
Why it makes sense: The most coveted big man in this year's RFA class, shit might get real as his value is higher than ever after landing at a perfect situation in Dallas with an open path for 30+ minutes (or maybe not?). Houston has positioned himself in a great situation with more than enough funds to retain the big guy even if someone tries to break the bank.
Mason Plumlee
RFA rights: Hornets
Likely destination: Hornets, Pacers, Pelicans, Heat, Lakers Contract estimate: $6 to $12 million per year
Likely to get overpaid? NO
Why it makes sense: A big question mark as he currently sits at a below the market offer from the Nuggets while the cash has really dried up for the rest of the league. He projects to be a middle to late round selection next year as the Paul Milsap addition further drops his value so there is a good chance he gets signed for a bargain contract in hate city.
Kentavius Caldwell-Pope
RFA rights: Knicks
Likely destination: Knicks, Pacers, Rockets, Magic, Pelicans, Celtics
Contract estimate: $10 to $14 million per year
Likely to get overpaid? YES
Why it makes sense:
Again, the key here is for managers to be able to read the situation and understand that the Knicks GM is only going to be able to retain 1 out of Hardaway Jr and Kentavius. Pope will be auditioning for a long term contract this year playing for the Lakers with Lonzo in what will probably make him a more than reliable fantasy contributor as while his is far from a dynamic scorer he contributes across all categories and he's just 24 years old.
JaMychal Green
RFA rights: Heat
Likely destination: Heat, Cavaliers, Nuggets, Rockets, Bucks, Jazz, 76ers
Contract estimate: $5 to $12 million per year
Likely to get overpaid? Depends on the panic level of the Heat GM
Why it makes sense:
Dear Miami GM: Please do understand that managers across the league value JaMychal way more than you do and if you want to keep him you will have to pay...now...with ca$h 🤑. You've been warned
Tony Snell
RFA rights: Bucks
Likely destination: Wolves, Hornets, Cavaliers, Rockets, Bucks, Heat, Lakers
Contract estimate: $2 to $5 million per year
Likely to get overpaid? NO
Why it makes sense:
After a career year Snell wasted no time signing a lucrative deal to stay with Milwaukee and we expect him to maintain the same starting guard role. The Bucks GM is probably going to stick with Snell instead of Mirotic in the event that a lucrative offer comes for the latter.
Shabaaz Mohammed
RFA rights: Wolves
Likely destination: Wolves, Hornets, Rockets, Bucks, Heat, Lakers
Contract estimate: $1 to 4 million per year
Likely to get overpaid? NO
Why it makes sense:
The poker face of Wolves has been strong for Shabaaz and he's still without a team so this looks like another under the radar situation for a manager that wants to take a flyer on a solid rotation player. Unless of course Indiana breaks the bank and bids on this guy too.
Alan Williams
RFA rights: Suns
Likely destination: Suns, Knicks, Hornets, Pacers, Rockets, Bucks, Heat, Lakers, Wizards
Contract estimate: $2 to $6 million per year
Likely to get overpaid? NO
Why it makes sense:
Only snitches hang out with police officers and that's why Miami will be looking to add Alan Williams as an insurance policy in the event JaMychal Green gets a fat offer sheet. Williams' mom is notoriously the head of the Phoenix police squad (to protect and serve, god bless 🙌🏼) and the kid has shown great hustle in an environment where softies rule (Len, Warren, Booker etc). Phoenix will not match an offer more than $6-7 millions per year so this looks like a very getable RFA.
Alex Len
RFA rights: Suns
Likely destination: Suns, Rockets, Bucks, Heat, Lakers, Pelicans, Wizards
Contract estimate: $3 to $7 million per year
Likely to get overpaid? NO
Why it makes sense:
Managers will have to overpay if they want to sign up for the services of another unproven big who is entering his 5th year in the league without having distinguished himself as a reliable Center.
Ben McClemore
RFA rights: Kings
Likely destination: Celtics, Pacers, Hornets, Lakers, Cavaliers, Bucks, Heat, Wolves
Contract estimate: $2 to $5 million per year
Likely to get overpaid? NO
Why it makes sense:
Sacramento finds himself in a position to dictate the future of 2 very promising RFAs who, due to the change of scenery, they might be looking at great opportunities to crack the top 100 this year. McClemore is the "Dion Waiters" lottery pick that never proved to be able to put together the right combination of physical skills and basketball IQ that makes or brakes players in this league and he is hoping to revive his career in Memphis. It's tough to see anyone being able to steal McClemore away from Sacramento as it will take an enormous offer sheet, the kind the New York Knicks gave to Tim Hardaway Jr. this year.
Jonathon Simmons
RFA rights: Kings
Likely destination: Kings, Cavaliers, Heat, Wolves, Warriors, Jazz
Contract estimate: $1 to $3 million per year
Likely to get overpaid? YES (if this league actually has intelligent GMs who are willing to take a chance)
Why it makes sense:
Simmons left San Antonio cause in his words "he wanted to play against the best in the league for more than 10 minutes" and even though his 3point shot is not yet consistent he is fantasy gold as his per 36 minutes stats are impressive. He looks like a great asset that Sacramento will be able to contain while I'm not so sure about who will be trying to drive his price up (The Mormons maybe??)
Joe Ingles
RFA rights: Jazz
Likely destination: Jazz, Heat, Cavaliers, Rockets, Heat, Lakers, Pelicans
Contract estimate: $3 to $7 million per year
Likely to get overpaid? YES
Why it makes sense:
The Jazz GM looks like a spender in this offseason but he might face a tough dilemma with one of the most underrated fantasy standouts last season (next to James Johnson). Ingles has an open path for the starting SF position left void after the departure of Gordon Gayward where he will be looking to feast on 3's, steals and hustle points for a team desperate for production. Expect a dark horse (Lakers?) to drive the price up for him.
Otto Porter Jr
RFA rights: Wizards
Likely destination: Wizards (at all costs), Magic, Knicks, Pacers, Kings
Contract estimate: $10 to $20 million per year
Likely to get overpaid? YES
Why it makes sense:
The MVP of the RFA kingdom, the least deserved max contract in the NBA today, the player who went from bust to max due to the first healthy season of All Stars John Wall and Bradley Beal, the guy who is about to get overpaid and either send Washington to depression or make another GM regret signing him for years to come (Houston just peed his pants oh no)
Bojan Bogdanovich
RFA rights: Magic
Likely destination: Celtics, Hornets, Lakers, Cavaliers, Wolves, Bucks, Suns, 76ers
Contract estimate: $3 to $7 million per year
Likely to get overpaid? MAYBE, depending on the poker face of Orlando
Why it makes sense:
Bogdanovich's rights are owned by a GM who won't be desperate to resign him as his wing positions are full of future hall of famers (I.e. Stanley Johnson, Jaylen Brown etc). This doesn't mean that he will be letting him walk away for free though as the plan is to match any offer at the $3-4 million and therefore managers looking to strengthen their 3point category will be pushing a lot of their chips towards the Serbian sensation (HUH??)
In related news "The Dinner at Polichni" took place last night where members of the committee and some GMs had the chance to exchange ideas all for the best of our league. Unfortunately, unforeseen circumstances, derailed any progress while the ghost of Andreas Papandreou appeared and started feeding grass to many of the GMS, all to their surprise. We can all now move forward, leave the piccania dish behind and just call it "The Embarrassment dinner" for any future reference.
If you go to the poorest black neighborhoods you will see at least some people with nice cars, some nice clothing, some nice houses but NO nice schools. Similarly, even a shithouse like Utah has some really nice players like Gobert and McCollum.
Cars, clothing, houses and Nerlens Noel are generated through the free market but some anomalities (like the Indiana spoiled kid) will always be there to establish capital relocation through the free market without any trace of common sense.
Economic theory can't answer the question whether or not an offer sheet is fair but what it can tell you is the effect of paying $25 million for a player like Otto Porter: the cash will run out and that team will miss out on assembling a balanced squad while he could have 3 players delivering the same stats with the same salaries combined.
With that in mind, expect a relatively quiet RFA season as the top players (Porter, Noel) will get paid, some mid tier guys (Bogdanovich) will get overpaid and potential gems like Simmons will get resigned for pennies on the dollar.
Tim Hardaway Jr.
RFA rights: Knicks
Likely destination: Knicks, Pacers, Nuggets, Suns, Magic, Celtics
Contract estimate: $6 to $10 million per year
Likely to get overpaid? YES
Why it makes sense: The Knicks are going to have to pick 1 out of Hardaway Jr and Pope so there will be a chance for someone to overpay and grab a starting SG who averaged 17.5 points, 3.6 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 2.1 three pointers in 30 starts and at almost 30 minutes/game. The question though is what kind of SG does make a difference in a 9 cat league, Hardaway Jr. or Caldwell-Pope?
Kelly Olynyk
RFA rights: Celtics
Likely destination: Celtics, Warriors, Heat, Nuggets, Pelicans, Suns, Jazz, Magic
Contract estimate: $5 to $8 million per year
Likely to get overpaid? NO
Why it makes sense: The Celtics look locked and loaded with Favors and Vucevic, but there will be many teams eager to pay for the second coming of Ντινος Αγγελιδης who is looking to an increased production in this new era of NBA basketball. The UFA class in hate city this year is also not very deep so Olynyk's value seems high but Boston has some $47 in cash and no intention to spend more than the market value for him.
Nikola Mirotic aka Mr. April
RFA rights: Bucks
Likely destination: Bucks, Nuggets, Pacers, Lakers, Pelicans, Knicks, Kings, Jazz
Contract estimate: $4 to 10 million per year
Likely to get overpaid? YES
Why it makes sense: Mirotic is a rollercoaster type of fantasy player that you either love or hate. Taking on a larger role down the stretch for the messy Bulls after being inexplicably the odd man out of the rotation for most of the season he posted a mixed bag with career-lows per-36 minutes last season. A change of scenery is not on the horizon as the Bulls have traditionally held to their players no matter the cost and Fred Hoiberg (probably the worst coach in the NBA) is not going anywhere as well. This is actually one of the most getable RFAs in this class as Milwaukee might have to select between him and Tony Snell.
Michael Carter-Williams
RFA rights: Bulls
Likely destination: Warriors, Pelicans, Cavaliers, Bucks, Lakers Contract estimate: $2 to 4 million per year
Likely to get overpaid? NO
Why it makes sense:
Do the Bulls need another PG? Certainly no and Carter-Williams struggled to establish himself in Chicago last season although he was even given the chance to start a few games for the crappy Bulls as the former rookie of the year will have to settle for a backup role now. He's still only 25 after all.
Cristiano Felicio
RFA rights: Bulls
Likely destination: Bulls, Hornets, Cavaliers, Heat, Lakers, Wizards
Contract estimate: $3 to 5 million per year
Likely to get overpaid? NO
Why it makes sense: Felicio will remain in Chicago and although he has never averaged more than 16 minutes per game the Bulls might be ready to unleash him as they are transitioning into a rebuilding period. That said RoLo still currently stands atop Felicio on the depth chart at Center. The Bulls fiscal situation offers a great opportunity for managers to steal this fatty.
Nerlens Noel
RFA rights: Rockets
Likely destination: Rockets, Magic, Knicks, Pacers, Nuggets Contract estimate: $15 to $20+ million per year
Likely to get overpaid? ABSOFREAKINUTLY
Why it makes sense: The most coveted big man in this year's RFA class, shit might get real as his value is higher than ever after landing at a perfect situation in Dallas with an open path for 30+ minutes (or maybe not?). Houston has positioned himself in a great situation with more than enough funds to retain the big guy even if someone tries to break the bank.
Mason Plumlee
RFA rights: Hornets
Likely destination: Hornets, Pacers, Pelicans, Heat, Lakers Contract estimate: $6 to $12 million per year
Likely to get overpaid? NO
Why it makes sense: A big question mark as he currently sits at a below the market offer from the Nuggets while the cash has really dried up for the rest of the league. He projects to be a middle to late round selection next year as the Paul Milsap addition further drops his value so there is a good chance he gets signed for a bargain contract in hate city.
Kentavius Caldwell-Pope
RFA rights: Knicks
Likely destination: Knicks, Pacers, Rockets, Magic, Pelicans, Celtics
Contract estimate: $10 to $14 million per year
Likely to get overpaid? YES
Why it makes sense:
Again, the key here is for managers to be able to read the situation and understand that the Knicks GM is only going to be able to retain 1 out of Hardaway Jr and Kentavius. Pope will be auditioning for a long term contract this year playing for the Lakers with Lonzo in what will probably make him a more than reliable fantasy contributor as while his is far from a dynamic scorer he contributes across all categories and he's just 24 years old.
JaMychal Green
RFA rights: Heat
Likely destination: Heat, Cavaliers, Nuggets, Rockets, Bucks, Jazz, 76ers
Contract estimate: $5 to $12 million per year
Likely to get overpaid? Depends on the panic level of the Heat GM
Why it makes sense:
Dear Miami GM: Please do understand that managers across the league value JaMychal way more than you do and if you want to keep him you will have to pay...now...with ca$h 🤑. You've been warned
Tony Snell
RFA rights: Bucks
Likely destination: Wolves, Hornets, Cavaliers, Rockets, Bucks, Heat, Lakers
Contract estimate: $2 to $5 million per year
Likely to get overpaid? NO
Why it makes sense:
After a career year Snell wasted no time signing a lucrative deal to stay with Milwaukee and we expect him to maintain the same starting guard role. The Bucks GM is probably going to stick with Snell instead of Mirotic in the event that a lucrative offer comes for the latter.
Shabaaz Mohammed
RFA rights: Wolves
Likely destination: Wolves, Hornets, Rockets, Bucks, Heat, Lakers
Contract estimate: $1 to 4 million per year
Likely to get overpaid? NO
Why it makes sense:
The poker face of Wolves has been strong for Shabaaz and he's still without a team so this looks like another under the radar situation for a manager that wants to take a flyer on a solid rotation player. Unless of course Indiana breaks the bank and bids on this guy too.
Alan Williams
RFA rights: Suns
Likely destination: Suns, Knicks, Hornets, Pacers, Rockets, Bucks, Heat, Lakers, Wizards
Contract estimate: $2 to $6 million per year
Likely to get overpaid? NO
Why it makes sense:
Only snitches hang out with police officers and that's why Miami will be looking to add Alan Williams as an insurance policy in the event JaMychal Green gets a fat offer sheet. Williams' mom is notoriously the head of the Phoenix police squad (to protect and serve, god bless 🙌🏼) and the kid has shown great hustle in an environment where softies rule (Len, Warren, Booker etc). Phoenix will not match an offer more than $6-7 millions per year so this looks like a very getable RFA.
Alex Len
RFA rights: Suns
Likely destination: Suns, Rockets, Bucks, Heat, Lakers, Pelicans, Wizards
Contract estimate: $3 to $7 million per year
Likely to get overpaid? NO
Why it makes sense:
Managers will have to overpay if they want to sign up for the services of another unproven big who is entering his 5th year in the league without having distinguished himself as a reliable Center.
Ben McClemore
RFA rights: Kings
Likely destination: Celtics, Pacers, Hornets, Lakers, Cavaliers, Bucks, Heat, Wolves
Contract estimate: $2 to $5 million per year
Likely to get overpaid? NO
Why it makes sense:
Sacramento finds himself in a position to dictate the future of 2 very promising RFAs who, due to the change of scenery, they might be looking at great opportunities to crack the top 100 this year. McClemore is the "Dion Waiters" lottery pick that never proved to be able to put together the right combination of physical skills and basketball IQ that makes or brakes players in this league and he is hoping to revive his career in Memphis. It's tough to see anyone being able to steal McClemore away from Sacramento as it will take an enormous offer sheet, the kind the New York Knicks gave to Tim Hardaway Jr. this year.
Jonathon Simmons
RFA rights: Kings
Likely destination: Kings, Cavaliers, Heat, Wolves, Warriors, Jazz
Contract estimate: $1 to $3 million per year
Likely to get overpaid? YES (if this league actually has intelligent GMs who are willing to take a chance)
Why it makes sense:
Simmons left San Antonio cause in his words "he wanted to play against the best in the league for more than 10 minutes" and even though his 3point shot is not yet consistent he is fantasy gold as his per 36 minutes stats are impressive. He looks like a great asset that Sacramento will be able to contain while I'm not so sure about who will be trying to drive his price up (The Mormons maybe??)
Joe Ingles
RFA rights: Jazz
Likely destination: Jazz, Heat, Cavaliers, Rockets, Heat, Lakers, Pelicans
Contract estimate: $3 to $7 million per year
Likely to get overpaid? YES
Why it makes sense:
The Jazz GM looks like a spender in this offseason but he might face a tough dilemma with one of the most underrated fantasy standouts last season (next to James Johnson). Ingles has an open path for the starting SF position left void after the departure of Gordon Gayward where he will be looking to feast on 3's, steals and hustle points for a team desperate for production. Expect a dark horse (Lakers?) to drive the price up for him.
Otto Porter Jr
RFA rights: Wizards
Likely destination: Wizards (at all costs), Magic, Knicks, Pacers, Kings
Contract estimate: $10 to $20 million per year
Likely to get overpaid? YES
Why it makes sense:
The MVP of the RFA kingdom, the least deserved max contract in the NBA today, the player who went from bust to max due to the first healthy season of All Stars John Wall and Bradley Beal, the guy who is about to get overpaid and either send Washington to depression or make another GM regret signing him for years to come (Houston just peed his pants oh no)
Bojan Bogdanovich
RFA rights: Magic
Likely destination: Celtics, Hornets, Lakers, Cavaliers, Wolves, Bucks, Suns, 76ers
Contract estimate: $3 to $7 million per year
Likely to get overpaid? MAYBE, depending on the poker face of Orlando
Why it makes sense:
Bogdanovich's rights are owned by a GM who won't be desperate to resign him as his wing positions are full of future hall of famers (I.e. Stanley Johnson, Jaylen Brown etc). This doesn't mean that he will be letting him walk away for free though as the plan is to match any offer at the $3-4 million and therefore managers looking to strengthen their 3point category will be pushing a lot of their chips towards the Serbian sensation (HUH??)
In related news "The Dinner at Polichni" took place last night where members of the committee and some GMs had the chance to exchange ideas all for the best of our league. Unfortunately, unforeseen circumstances, derailed any progress while the ghost of Andreas Papandreou appeared and started feeding grass to many of the GMS, all to their surprise. We can all now move forward, leave the piccania dish behind and just call it "The Embarrassment dinner" for any future reference.
